Do you know how to use weather data to estimate energy demand with respect to Heating Degree Days (HDDs) and Cooling Degree Days (CCDs)? Weather is the primary driver in energy demand variability as variations in temperature across the country dramatically influence the amount of energy consumed to heat and cool homes and businesses. Colder weather in winter will increase demand for heating fuels such as natural gas, heating oil and propane while hotter weather in summer will increase demand for electricity and thus the fuels used to produce that electricity, such as coal and natural gas. Since the price of energy commodities, such as natural gas, is largely related to their supply and demand, weather data can help predict price movements as well as the underlying supply and demand levels.Topics: Renewable Energy | Oil & Gas | Utilities | Frontier |
One of the main drivers in global weather patterns is Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is a large propagating area of tropical convection (showers and thunderstorms) that has a strong influence in Jet Stream patterns, particularly over the Pacific. The MJO can modulate weather patterns similar to ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) at times, but on a shorter time scale. Both the MJO and ENSO influence global weather patterns by shifting the location of tropical convection, but whereas ENSO influences tend to persist for whole seasons, the MJO has more of an influence week-to-week weather.Topics: Frontier | Hurricane | Precipitation |
Winter 2016-17 got off to a cold start in early December and then produced some widespread well below normal temperatures during the first third of January, but since then warm weather has dominated east of the Rockies. The maps below show the observed temperature anomalies for this past winter (Dec-Feb) and clearly depict the widespread nature of the warm weather this winter.Topics: Frontier |
With the mild winter of 2016-17 drawing to a close, attention is now shifting to the weather forecast for spring 2017. The primary questions for the upcoming spring season is whether the warmth of this winter will carry over through the spring season and what the severe weather outlook is for this year.Topics: Tornado | Frontier | Thunderstorm |
Where does the current run of warmth rank historically? The last six weeks have been incredibly warm across the eastern half of the US, and numerous records have been set in many locations. We took a quick look through our historical data and pulled the top 10 warmest, non-overlapping six week periods on record since 1971.Topics: Frontier |
There are a number of atmospheric oscillations that are important drivers of week-to-week weather patterns across North America. The Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) often get the most attention, but one of the most important pattern oscillations for North America is the Eastern Pacific Oscillation or EPO.Topics: Frontier |
As the number of installed wind generation facilities across the U.S. increases, so does the total available generation capacity. With total installed wind generation capacity now well past 75,000 Megawatts (MW) and racing towards 100,000 MW, wind generation is having a growing impact on the total consumption of other fuel sources used to produce electricity.Topics: Renewable Energy | Oil & Gas | Wind | Frontier |
NOAA has released their full 2016 data for the US and global regions, and the data confirm that 2016 was a very warm year. The full year ranked as the 2nd warmest on record for the U.S., while the global average was the warmest on record.Topics: Frontier |
The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season was an above average season that concluded with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. This fit neatly into our preseason predictions of 14-16 named storms and 6-8 hurricanes. All of these totals are above the long-term averages (11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes), but quite comparable with the averages during the recent active period which spans from 1995-2015 (14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes). Above normal water temperatures in large parts of the tropical Atlantic, along with the absence of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific, were the key factors that produced the busy season.
After taking most of the last year off, colder than normal weather has made a return this month, with the coldest anomalies seen since the frigid end of the 2014-15 winter. The well below normal temperatures being seen will continue with another round of more moderate cold possible late this month. The end result will be the first colder than normal December since 2013, and perhaps the coldest since 2009.