The 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is fast approaching, and so it is a good time to look at the factors that influence overall levels of hurricane activity. There are several factors that influence how active a hurricane season will be in the Atlantic: wind shear, ocean temperatures, the frequency and intensity of tropical waves moving off Africa, as well as the amount of dry air moving off the Sahara. In this blog post we will focus on water temperatures in the Atlantic and wind shear, which frequently is modulated by ENSO conditions.Topics: Frontier | Hurricane |
It may be only April, however, the Atlantic tropical season has begun a bit early. Subtropical Depression One was officially designated by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) today. Does this signal an early start to the Atlantic hurricane season?Topics: WeatherOps | Hurricane |
One of the main drivers in global weather patterns is Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), which is a large propagating area of tropical convection (showers and thunderstorms) that has a strong influence in Jet Stream patterns, particularly over the Pacific. The MJO can modulate weather patterns similar to ENSO (El Niño/La Niña) at times, but on a shorter time scale. Both the MJO and ENSO influence global weather patterns by shifting the location of tropical convection, but whereas ENSO influences tend to persist for whole seasons, the MJO has more of an influence week-to-week weather.Topics: Frontier | Hurricane | Precipitation |
The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season was an above average season that concluded with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. This fit neatly into our preseason predictions of 14-16 named storms and 6-8 hurricanes. All of these totals are above the long-term averages (11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes), but quite comparable with the averages during the recent active period which spans from 1995-2015 (14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes). Above normal water temperatures in large parts of the tropical Atlantic, along with the absence of El Nino in the equatorial Pacific, were the key factors that produced the busy season.
Otto became a hurricane today. With Atlantic Hurricane Season officially ending on November 30, Otto should make landfall on Thanksgiving, November 24, in Central America. Satellite images show the system is becoming more organized over the warm waters of the Caribbean Sea.Topics: Hurricane |
The Mediterranean Sea is not a region of the world that you typically think of as being a tropical cyclone hotbed. Over this past weekend a cyclone with both tropical and non-tropical characteristics formed in the Ionian Sea between Italy and Greece. The development of these systems, known as medicanes, is quite rare. When they do form, they often have characteristics of both a fully tropical cyclone and a non-tropical cyclone.
Do we need a new hurricane rating scale that accounts for flooding? It is a question that the Governor of North Carolina is asking. His concern is raised by the high death toll in his state caused by flooding related to Category 1 Hurricane Matthew.Topics: WeatherOps | Offshore | Tropical | Hurricane |
The aftermath of Hurricane Matthew in Haiti is still being established, with new deaths and injuries across eastern North America hot off the wires daily. Also greatly affected have been the Caribbean, eastern Cuba, the Bahamas and the East Coast.Topics: Tropical | Hurricane |
Hurricane Matthew may be gone, but he left catastrophic flooding in his wake. The US death toll currently stands at 20, half of these are from North Carolina. Another five people remain missing in that state. And the water continues to rise.Topics: SkyWise | Offshore | Tropical | Hurricane |